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Every ten minutes, the Bitcoin network crowns a winner — awarding 3.125 BTC to whichever miner first solves a cryptographic proof-of-work query.
This analysis presents a systematic comparison of the jackpot probability of participating in Bitcoin solo mining at 4 terahashes per second (TH/s) against the national lottery odds of 33 countries across Europe, the United States, and Canada.
While a single solo mining attempt yields an odds ratio of approximately 1 in 200 billion — far worse than any national lottery per draw — the continuous, 24/7 nature of mining fundamentally alters the probabilistic calculus.
With 144 block attempts per day, a 4 TH/s miner achieves a daily jackpot probability of roughly 1 in 1.4 million, and an annualized probability of approximately 1 in 2,500. By contrast, the most favorable national lottery analyzed — Norway’s Lotto (7/34, 1 in 5.4 million per draw, once weekly) — yields an annual probability of only 1 in 104,000. The least favorable, Italy’s SuperEnaLotto (1 in 622 million per draw), produces an annual probability of merely 1 in 4 million. 
Across all 33 lottery systems examined, Bitcoin solo mining at 4 TH/s produces a superior annualized win probability in every case. The reward (~$250,000 in BTC at current prices) is smaller than most lottery jackpots, but the risk-adjusted frequency of winning events is demonstrably higher.
If winners hold on to their win and don’t sell, they might also see their holdings appreciate over years. Many experts expect one Bitcoin to reach at least $1M by the end of the decade.
Furthermore, the miner retains ownership of depreciating but resalable hardware, participates in securing a decentralized monetary network, and accumulates technical knowledge — externalities absent from conventional lottery participation.
The comparison of lottery odds around the world suggest that for technically inclined individuals, small-scale Bitcoin solo mining represents not merely a financial curiosity, but a structurally superior probabilistic instrument compared to any national lottery currently operating in Europe or North America.
🎰 National Lottery Jackpot Odds by Country Table
A small, 4 TH/s miner achieves a daily jackpot probability of roughly 1 in 1.4 million, and an annualized probability of approximately 1 in 2,500. In comparison, even the most favorable national lotteries have worse odds.
| Country / Region | Main Lottery | Format | Jackpot Odds | Draws/Week | Min. Jackpot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇹 Austria | Lotto 6 aus 45 | 6/45 | 1 in 8,145,060 | 2 | €1M |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | Lotto 6/45 | 6/45 | 1 in 8,145,060 | 2 | €1M |
| 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | Lotto 6/42 | 6/42 | 1 in 5,245,786 | 2 | BGN 1M |
| 🇨🇿 Czech Republic | Sportka 6/49 | 6/49 | 1 in 13,983,816 | 2 | CZK varies |
| 🇩🇰 Denmark | Lotto 7/36 | 7/36 | 1 in 8,347,680 | 1 | DKK 2M |
| 🇪🇪 Estonia | EuroJackpot | 5/50+2/12 | 1 in 95,344,200 | 2 | €10M |
| 🇫🇮 Finland | Lotto 7/40 | 7/40 | 1 in 18,643,560 | 1 | €2M |
| 🇫🇷 France | Loto 5/49+1/10 | 5/49+1/10 | 1 in 19,068,840 | 3 | €2M |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | Lotto 6 aus 49 | 6/49 | 1 in 139,838,160 | 2 | €1–3M |
| 🇬🇷 Greece | Joker 5/45+1/20 | 5/45+1/20 | 1 in 24,435,180 | 2 | €500K |
| 🇭🇺 Hungary | Ötöslottó 5/90 | 5/90 | 1 in 43,949,268 | 1 | HUF varies |
| 🇮🇪 Ireland | Lotto 6/47 | 6/47 | 1 in 10,737,573 | 2 | €2M |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | SuperEnaLotto 6/90 | 6/90 | 1 in 622,614,630 | 3 | €2M |
| 🇱🇻 Latvia | EuroJackpot | 5/50+2/12 | 1 in 95,344,200 | 2 | €10M |
| 🇱🇹 Lithuania | EuroJackpot | 5/50+2/12 | 1 in 95,344,200 | 2 | €10M |
| 🇱🇺 Luxembourg | EuroMillions | 5/50+2/12 | 1 in 139,838,160 | 2 | €15M |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | Lotto 6/45 | 6/45 | 1 in 13,983,816 | 1 | €7.5M |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | Lotto 7/34 | 7/34 | 1 in 5,379,616 | 1 | NOK 3M |
| 🇵🇱 Poland | Lotto 6/49 | 6/49 | 1 in 13,983,816 | 3 | PLN 2M |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal | EuroMillions | 5/50+2/12 | 1 in 139,838,160 | 2 | €15M |
| 🇷🇴 Romania | Loto 6/49 | 6/49 | 1 in 13,983,816 | 2 | RON varies |
| 🇸🇰 Slovakia | EuroJackpot | 5/50+2/12 | 1 in 95,344,200 | 2 | €10M |
| 🇸🇮 Slovenia | EuroJackpot | 5/50+2/12 | 1 in 95,344,200 | 2 | €10M |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | La Primitiva 6/49 | 6/49 | 1 in 13,983,816 | 2 | €2M |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | Lotto 7/35 | 7/35 | 1 in 6,724,520 | 1 | SEK varies |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | Swiss Lotto 6/42 | 6/42 | 1 in 31,474,716 | 2 | CHF 1M |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Lotto 6/59 | 6/59 | 1 in 45,057,474 | 2 | £4M |
| 🇺🇸 USA (Powerball) | Powerball 5/69+1/26 | 5/69+1/26 | 1 in 292,201,338 | 3 | $20M |
| 🇺🇸 USA (Mega Millions) | Mega Millions 5/70+1/25 | 5/70+1/25 | 1 in 302,575,350 | 2 | $20M |
| 🇨🇦 Canada (Lotto 649) | Lotto 6/49 | 6/49 | 1 in 13,983,816 | 2 | CA$5M |
| 🇨🇦 Canada (Lotto Max) | Lotto Max 7/50 | 7/50 | 1 in 33,294,800 | 2 | CA$10M |
| 🌍 EuroMillions (13 countries) | EuroMillions | 5/50+2/12 | 1 in 139,838,160 | 2 | €15M |
| 🌍 EuroJackpot (18 countries) | EuroJackpot | 5/50+2/12 | 1 in 95,344,200 | 2 | €10M |
Lottery odds vs. Solo Mining at 4 TH/s
A 4TH/s solo miner runs continuously, giving 144 block attempts per day. On an annualized basis:
- Best lottery (Norway, 1 in 5.4M, 1×/week): ~1 in 104,000 per year
- 4 TH/s solo mining: ~1 in 2,500 per year ✅ significantly better
- German Lotto (1 in 139M, 2×/week): ~1 in 1.3M per year
- Italian SuperEnaLotto (1 in 622M, 3×/week): ~1 in 4M per year, by far the worst
We can conclude that a 4 TH/s miner beats every single lottery on this list on an annual probability basis, because it makes 144 attempts every day vs. 1–3 lottery draws per week. The only trade-off is the bitcoin mining jackpot is smaller in fiat terms during the bear market (~€280K in BTC vs. multi-million euro lottery prizes).
Editor’s Note: The core conclusion of this analysis holds — solo mining at 4 TH/s produces better annualized odds than every national lottery examined — but two key figures require clarification. At a assumed network hashrate of approximately 1,000 EH/s, the per-attempt odds for a 4 TH/s miner are closer to 1 in 250 billion (not 1 in 200 billion), and the annualized win probability works out to roughly 1 in 4,750 (not 1 in 2,500). Both figures are approximately half as favorable as originally stated, reflecting significant hashrate change. The directional argument remains valid; the margin of superiority over national lotteries is simply narrower than the numbers above suggest. Further, A 4 TH/s ASIC (e.g., a NerdQaxe++ running 24/7) consumes real electricity. Unlike a lottery ticket which is a one-time cost, solo mining has ongoing operating costs that have to be compared. The “1 in 2,500 annual odds” implies one would expect to win once every 2,500 years — which is worth making explicit. The comparison to lotteries is valid, but the framing obscures that even the “better” odds are astronomically long. The article also calls hardware “depreciating but resalable” as a positive which is true, but small ASICs depreciate fast and resale markets for lower-end units are thin. However, one cannot sell used or unused lottery tickets.
